Skip to main content

New top story from Time: Rising Heat Is Making It Harder to Work in the U.S., and the Costs to the Economy Will Soar With Climate Change

https://ift.tt/3gJcfzh

Rising extreme heat will make it increasingly hard for workers to do their jobs, shaving hundreds of billions of dollars off the U.S. economy each year. That’s according to a report published Tuesday by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center, a Washington D.C.-based think tank focused on climate adaptation. It’s a stark warning about the costs of failing to act on climate change.

Productivity losses due to heat currently cost the U.S. an estimated $100 billion a year, the report claims. As days of extreme heat become more frequent in the years ahead, that figure is projected to double to $200 billion by 2030—around 0.5% of GDP. By 2050, annual losses are projected to hit $500 billion, around 1% of GDP. These national losses are expected to come primarily from the southeast and midwest. But the effects will be felt across most of the country, with annual losses of at least 0.5% of economic activity projected for 62% of U.S. counties.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

This summer, it’s been hard to ignore that the U.S. is getting hotter. Since June, rolling heat waves have stifled nearly every region, weighing especially hard on western states, nearly all of which have recorded drought conditions. In the last week of August, 60 million people were under heat warnings across the country, with temperatures as high as 115°F in southwestern cities, and humidity making northeastern cities feel close to 100°F. Unusually high temperatures have not only been felt in the U.S.: according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July was the hottest month on Earth since records began, beating the previous high of July 2016 by 0.02°F.

As greenhouse gases in our atmosphere absorb more heat, the U.S. will experience more frequent and more widespread “high heat days”—defined as a day when the maximum temperature is above 90°F. Drawing on climate projections from the World Climate Research Program, downscaled to county-level, the report estimates that by 2050, up to 30% of the U.S. population will be exposed to more than 100 high heat days per year. That’s up from 5% under the prevailing climate conditions.

Though we may all feel the rising heat on warmer days, its long term consequences for the economy are still poorly understood, says Kathy Baughman McLeod, director of the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center. “It’s hard to isolate heat in economic data,” she says. “Where other climate hazards like hurricanes and floods have an impact on physical assets, heat’s impacts are mostly on the human body.”

On high heat days, studies show people are more likely to feel tired or sick at work, partly as a result of nighttime temperatures remaining too high to get a good night’s sleep. When people are tired, they take more breaks, work more slowly, make more mistakes and have a higher risk of getting injured.

To figure out how those factors affect the U.S. economy as a whole, researchers at consultancy Vivid Economics combined projections for the number of extreme heat days in counties across the U.S., a model on heat-related productivity loss, and government data on the predominance of outdoor work and access to air conditioning across industries. Researchers also included existing models for heat’s impact on ​four crops that are key to U.S. agriculture: corn, soy, wheat and cotton.

The result is only a partial view of heat’s impact on the economy. The analysis leaves out many other ways that heat may impact economic output across the country that were too difficult to measure reliably, including the impact that heat might have on leisure and tourism, the cost of wildfires, and the cost of mechanical failures for machines that stop working at high temperatures.

But even with the limited scope, the $100 billion in current annual heat-related productivity losses outweigh the estimated $60 billion cost of the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. And the annual losses projected in the near future are even worse.

The southeast and the midwest of the country will face the highest economic cost from extreme heat. Texas—the most-affected state due to its climate and relatively high levels of outdoor work— is currently losing an average of $30 billion a year, per the report, and is projected to lose some $110 billion a year by 2050, amounting to 2.5% of its total economic output.

Heat’s impact on work is not distributed equally among the U.S. population. Black and Hispanic workers tend to live in parts of the country that are more exposed to heat, and they face worse working conditions with less protection from heat; in 2020 they lost around 1.3% of their productivity due to heat, compared to a 1.1% loss for non-Hispanic white workers.

The industries most affected by extreme heat are construction and agriculture, where workers are most exposed. By 2050, construction is projected to lose 3.5% of its total annual economic activity to heat ($1.2 billion per year), while agriculture, where falling crop yields are also a factor, would lose 3.7% ($130.7 million per year).

But overall losses from heat are projected to be even bigger in the service sector, which dominates the U.S. economy. While those in office jobs are mostly protected from heat by air conditioning, workers in areas like food service or transportation can be exposed to dangerously high temperatures. The sector faces losses of $2.8 billion a year—0.7% of its economic activity—by 2050, per the report.

The study is part of a growing body of research that attempts to put a price tag on the risks the world’s economies face from climate change. The goal, Baughman McLeod says, is to show that doing nothing will cost more than taking action to cut emissions and adapt to climate change. In the case of heat, adaptation will include solutions like creating urban forests, improving early warning systems, and developing heat-resistant strains of crops. “These things require investment,” she says. “But protecting people first rather than paying for it later will, in the end, be the right decision for any business or government.”

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

India records 43,082 new Covid-19 cases, 492 deaths in a day; tally breaches 93 lakh-mark https://ift.tt/3mdvWjd

India on Friday reported 43,082 new coronavirus cases and 492 deaths, taking total number of cases in the country to 93 lakh. According to the Union Health Ministry data, there are currently 4 lakh active cases across the country, while over 87 lakh patients have been discharged.

How Muni is Tackling the 10 Worst Delay Hot Spots Across SF

How Muni is Tackling the 10 Worst Delay Hot Spots Across SF By Cassie Halls The SFMTA has had its fair share of ribbon-cutting ceremonies  over the last two years. These celebrations draw attention to some of our biggest projects. Also attention-worthy are some of the more incremental efforts happening at the agency. One such effort led by the Muni Forward team is the Transit Delay Hot Spots Program , launched in February 2020 . Muni Forward is known for corridor projects such as the L Taraval Improvement Project , 16 th Street Improvement Project , and M Oceanview Transit and Safety Project . These efforts are increasing the already sizeable 80 miles of transit reliability upgrades since 2014. There are also other ways we’re working to slash travel times and improve reliability across the Muni network. The Transit Delay Hot Spots Program aims to tackle the 10 worst “delay hot spots” each year, where buses crawl between stops at four miles an hour or less. We’re looking cl...

Gene Henderson: Honoring Muni’s First Black Division Manager

Gene Henderson: Honoring Muni’s First Black Division Manager By Jeremy Menzies In recognition of Black History Month, we bring you the story of Gene Henderson, the first Black man to become the head of a Muni bus division, Muni’s Kirkland Division. Henderson’s Background Gene Henderson was born in Houston, Texas, in 1916. He married his wife Naomi in 1939 and then served in the U.S. Army during World War II. Following the war, Gene and his family moved to San Francisco where he began his career at the San Francisco Municipal Railway. Early Career On February 1, 1946, Henderson was hired as a streetcar motorman out of Sutro Division, which was located on the corner of 32nd Ave. and Clement St. He was hired just five years after Muni’s first Black transit operator, Audley Cole, had successfully fought to integrate the carmen’s union in 1941. In his early days at Muni, Gene worked one of the three lines running out of Sutro Division from the Ferry Building to the Richmond District o...

SFMTA’s Cable Car Signal Tower Gets a Refresh

SFMTA’s Cable Car Signal Tower Gets a Refresh By Jeremy Menzies At the corner of California and Powell Streets stands a diminutive but important building that has been in use for well over 100 years. This octagonal signal tower controls the crossing of the Powell and California Street cable car lines, and recently underwent a full restoration thanks to the skilled craftspeople at the Cable Car Division. A group photo of Muni craftspeople and shop management who worked to restore the signal tower in 2020-2021. The tower’s history dates to 1888 when the original was built by the Ferries and Cliff House Railroad, which operated cable cars on Powell Street at the time. That tower was destroyed in the 1906 earthquake and fires that ravaged Nob Hill. In March 1907, it was rebuilt by then-owner United Railroads of San Francisco (URR) and went back into operation. Photo showing signal tower in 1908 with the Fairmont Hotel and passengers waiting for a cable car in the background. Photo c...

New top story from Time: U.S. Agents to Pull Back in Portland But Will Remain on Standby

https://ift.tt/3gclOEH (PORTLAND, Ore.) — The Trump administration and Oregon leaders declared victory after it was announced that U.S. agents guarding a federal courthouse during violent demonstrations in Portland will pull back, but it wasn’t clear the agreement will reduce tensions that have led to more than two months of protests. Oregon Gov. Kate Brown said Wednesday agents with U.S. Customs and Border Protection and Immigration and Customs Enforcement will begin leaving the city’s downtown area on Thursday, but Acting Secretary for the Department of Homeland Security Chad Wolf wouldn’t specify where they would go. He insisted a federal presence would remain in Portland until the Trump administration was assured the agreement was working and the Oregon State Police was sufficiently protecting federal property. Many demonstrators are peaceful, but smaller numbers have thrown fireworks, flares, rocks and ball bearings at federal agents, used green lasers to blind them ...

Hop Onboard Muni and Enjoy Downtown Union Square

Hop Onboard Muni and Enjoy Downtown Union Square By Pamela Johnson The iconic Cable Cars are just one of the many options to get you to all the holiday festivities in Downtown Union Square! The SFMTA would like to wish you a Happy Holidays! With festivities, dining, shopping and all the many holiday activities to choose from, Downtown Union Square, much like the rest of the city is making optimistic strides in the city’s economic recovery. Catching Muni, paratransit or a taxi to downtown supports small businesses and is a big boost to our transit goals. Below is a comprehensive list of transit and parking options to head into the heart of the downtown shopping and festivities this holiday season.    Central Subway Special Weekend Shuttle  The Central Subway’s Special Weekend Shuttle has got you covered on Saturday and Sunday’s every 12 minutes from 8 am to 12 am. Deboard at our new Union Square/Market Street Station . From here, you can also transfer to BART’s Po...

PM Modi extends birthday wishes to Sonia Gandhi https://ift.tt/3lYD7eu

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday extended birthday greetings to Congress Interim President Sonia Gandhi. Taking to Twitter, Prime Minister Modi said, "Birthday greetings to Smt. Sonia Gandhi Ji. May God bless her with a long and healthy life."

Improving Safety on 16th Street

Improving Safety on 16th Street By John Gravener Construction on Phase 2 of the 16th Street Improvement Project began May 9, 2022. 16th Street is part of the city’s High Injury Network , where 75% of the city’s severe and fatal traffic incidents occur on just 12% of the city’s streets. This project, in addition to improving reliability of the 22 Fillmore line, has several pedestrian safety features that will make 16th Street a safer place for all modes of transportation. For people who walk on 16th Street: One of these safety elements is the installation of 2 new pedestrian bulbs at Guerrero Street and South Van Ness Avenue. These bulbs shorten the crossing distance between the corners of an intersection and make people who are about to cross the street more visible to drivers. The bulbs also require vehicles to slow down when making right-hand turns. High-visibility crosswalks will be installed. These make it easier for people driving to see people crossing the street, and als...

Smarter Traffic Signals Prioritize Transit and People

Smarter Traffic Signals Prioritize Transit and People By Robert Lim Have you ever wondered how traffic signals could better balance the needs of all road users, whether driving, bicycling, walking or taking Muni? The SFMTA is rolling out its Connected Corridor Pilot this month to use transit platform and traffic signal sensor data to inform signal timing adjustments. The pilot also aims to collect information to support transit efficiency and street safety improvements.  Traffic engineers use signal timing adjustments as a tool to prioritize the flow of travel in specific directions or for different travel modes – Muni, people walking or driving – to meet the changing demands of the road network across different timepoints in a day. The Connected Corridors Pilot seeks to push the envelope of innovation by investing in advanced technologies, funded through a U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) grant. These tools will better position the city to serve the potential future ne...

Free Muni and Paratransit to COVID-19 Vaccine Appointments

Free Muni and Paratransit to COVID-19 Vaccine Appointments By Phillip Pierce Free Muni and Paratransit to COVID-19 Vaccine Appointments Starting on Tuesday, February 23, Muni and Paratransit will be free for those traveling to get vaccinated for COVID-19. This includes trips in both directions. The SFMTA is also providing additional access to taxi service for those who use the  Essential Trip Card . These rides are good for trips to the city-sponsored high-volume vaccine sites, hospitals or anywhere else that is offering vaccines. More information on the city-sponsored sites as well as directions on how to get there can be found on  the city vaccination website. We know that getting San Franciscans vaccinated is the city’s highest priority. This program is designed to eliminate transportation and cost barriers to receiving this life-changing vaccine. How to Ride on Muni Use our  trip planner  or  service map  to find the best way to get to your vacc...