Skip to main content

New top story from Time: Rising Heat Is Making It Harder to Work in the U.S., and the Costs to the Economy Will Soar With Climate Change

https://ift.tt/3gJcfzh

Rising extreme heat will make it increasingly hard for workers to do their jobs, shaving hundreds of billions of dollars off the U.S. economy each year. That’s according to a report published Tuesday by the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center, a Washington D.C.-based think tank focused on climate adaptation. It’s a stark warning about the costs of failing to act on climate change.

Productivity losses due to heat currently cost the U.S. an estimated $100 billion a year, the report claims. As days of extreme heat become more frequent in the years ahead, that figure is projected to double to $200 billion by 2030—around 0.5% of GDP. By 2050, annual losses are projected to hit $500 billion, around 1% of GDP. These national losses are expected to come primarily from the southeast and midwest. But the effects will be felt across most of the country, with annual losses of at least 0.5% of economic activity projected for 62% of U.S. counties.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

This summer, it’s been hard to ignore that the U.S. is getting hotter. Since June, rolling heat waves have stifled nearly every region, weighing especially hard on western states, nearly all of which have recorded drought conditions. In the last week of August, 60 million people were under heat warnings across the country, with temperatures as high as 115°F in southwestern cities, and humidity making northeastern cities feel close to 100°F. Unusually high temperatures have not only been felt in the U.S.: according to scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July was the hottest month on Earth since records began, beating the previous high of July 2016 by 0.02°F.

As greenhouse gases in our atmosphere absorb more heat, the U.S. will experience more frequent and more widespread “high heat days”—defined as a day when the maximum temperature is above 90°F. Drawing on climate projections from the World Climate Research Program, downscaled to county-level, the report estimates that by 2050, up to 30% of the U.S. population will be exposed to more than 100 high heat days per year. That’s up from 5% under the prevailing climate conditions.

Though we may all feel the rising heat on warmer days, its long term consequences for the economy are still poorly understood, says Kathy Baughman McLeod, director of the Adrienne Arsht-Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center. “It’s hard to isolate heat in economic data,” she says. “Where other climate hazards like hurricanes and floods have an impact on physical assets, heat’s impacts are mostly on the human body.”

On high heat days, studies show people are more likely to feel tired or sick at work, partly as a result of nighttime temperatures remaining too high to get a good night’s sleep. When people are tired, they take more breaks, work more slowly, make more mistakes and have a higher risk of getting injured.

To figure out how those factors affect the U.S. economy as a whole, researchers at consultancy Vivid Economics combined projections for the number of extreme heat days in counties across the U.S., a model on heat-related productivity loss, and government data on the predominance of outdoor work and access to air conditioning across industries. Researchers also included existing models for heat’s impact on ​four crops that are key to U.S. agriculture: corn, soy, wheat and cotton.

The result is only a partial view of heat’s impact on the economy. The analysis leaves out many other ways that heat may impact economic output across the country that were too difficult to measure reliably, including the impact that heat might have on leisure and tourism, the cost of wildfires, and the cost of mechanical failures for machines that stop working at high temperatures.

But even with the limited scope, the $100 billion in current annual heat-related productivity losses outweigh the estimated $60 billion cost of the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. And the annual losses projected in the near future are even worse.

The southeast and the midwest of the country will face the highest economic cost from extreme heat. Texas—the most-affected state due to its climate and relatively high levels of outdoor work— is currently losing an average of $30 billion a year, per the report, and is projected to lose some $110 billion a year by 2050, amounting to 2.5% of its total economic output.

Heat’s impact on work is not distributed equally among the U.S. population. Black and Hispanic workers tend to live in parts of the country that are more exposed to heat, and they face worse working conditions with less protection from heat; in 2020 they lost around 1.3% of their productivity due to heat, compared to a 1.1% loss for non-Hispanic white workers.

The industries most affected by extreme heat are construction and agriculture, where workers are most exposed. By 2050, construction is projected to lose 3.5% of its total annual economic activity to heat ($1.2 billion per year), while agriculture, where falling crop yields are also a factor, would lose 3.7% ($130.7 million per year).

But overall losses from heat are projected to be even bigger in the service sector, which dominates the U.S. economy. While those in office jobs are mostly protected from heat by air conditioning, workers in areas like food service or transportation can be exposed to dangerously high temperatures. The sector faces losses of $2.8 billion a year—0.7% of its economic activity—by 2050, per the report.

The study is part of a growing body of research that attempts to put a price tag on the risks the world’s economies face from climate change. The goal, Baughman McLeod says, is to show that doing nothing will cost more than taking action to cut emissions and adapt to climate change. In the case of heat, adaptation will include solutions like creating urban forests, improving early warning systems, and developing heat-resistant strains of crops. “These things require investment,” she says. “But protecting people first rather than paying for it later will, in the end, be the right decision for any business or government.”

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Smarter Traffic Signals Prioritize Transit and People

Smarter Traffic Signals Prioritize Transit and People By Robert Lim Have you ever wondered how traffic signals could better balance the needs of all road users, whether driving, bicycling, walking or taking Muni? The SFMTA is rolling out its Connected Corridor Pilot this month to use transit platform and traffic signal sensor data to inform signal timing adjustments. The pilot also aims to collect information to support transit efficiency and street safety improvements.  Traffic engineers use signal timing adjustments as a tool to prioritize the flow of travel in specific directions or for different travel modes – Muni, people walking or driving – to meet the changing demands of the road network across different timepoints in a day. The Connected Corridors Pilot seeks to push the envelope of innovation by investing in advanced technologies, funded through a U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) grant. These tools will better position the city to serve the potential future ne...

Year-End Review of History Uncovered in 2021

Year-End Review of History Uncovered in 2021 By Jeremy Menzies As the year comes to an end, we are excited to present a selection of historic photos that were preserved in the SFMTA Photo Archive this year. Archive staff have been scanning and cataloguing archival Muni photos that date back 100+ years for over a decade now. Read more about our work in the  10 year milestone blog from 2018 .   The images below are a set of richly colored slides, some of which were originally used in presentations by Muni staff in the 1970s.  These photos have a wide range of subject matter from everyday street activity to scenic vistas, project documentation and important Muni milestones.  A typical day in the life of a Muni Operator.  This shot was taken near Market and 5th Streets in the early 1970s Here, customers board a 38 Geary bus painted for the 1976 Bicentennial in a striking red, white, and blue paint job. A rare snowfall is c...

New top story from Time: TWICE Delivers Uplifting Performance of ‘DEPEND ON YOU’ at TIME100 Talks

https://ift.tt/3a8KgF0 TWICE delivered a special performance at the TIME100 Talks Friday. For the first time, the South Korean group performed the track “DEPEND ON YOU” from its latest album, Eyes Wide Open . As the coronavirus pandemic continues, members Jihyo, Nayeon, Momo, Sana, Mina, Dahyun, Chaeyoung and Tzuyu offered fans a message of solidarity and gratitude (vocalist Jeongyeon is on hiatus due to health reasons). “ Currently, we are sad to say that we are also aware that all of us are suffering in this situation,” Sana said. “We appreciate all people who are doing their best to return us to our normal lives and to bring back brighter days,” Nayeon continued. “TWICE will diligently keep on carrying out our duty to bring positive energy into the world,” Mina said. In line with these words, the group sang “DEPEND ON YOU”—a breezy, mellow track about steady hands that offer strength and support in the midst of darkness. “DEPEND ON YOU” first appeared on Eyes ...

FOX NEWS: What is TikTok's 'Check Your Privilege' challenge?

What is TikTok's 'Check Your Privilege' challenge? Activists are calling for awareness and change following the death of George Floyd. via FOX NEWS https://ift.tt/3crYd00

Shared Spaces are Here to Stay. Permit Renewals are Due January 15, 2023.

Shared Spaces are Here to Stay. Permit Renewals are Due January 15, 2023. By Anne Yalon Shared Spaces, amongst many other benefits, allows our residents and families to enjoy safe and social outdoor dining. Seen here are the the owners of Tio Chilo’s Grill and their children in the restaurant’s parklet on 24th Street in the Mission.  San Francisco’s popular Shared Spaces program allows merchants, restaurants and arts and culture organizations to use the curbside, sidewalk and other public spaces to conduct local business activities and stay afloat. What emerged as an economic lifeline during the pandemic is making San Francisco’s streets more energized, engaged and activated. Many of the Shared Spaces parklets have become central gathering places for the local community. “ Our parklet makes me feel like when I go to Mexico, where outdoor seating is everywhere. People end up joining their friends in our parklet. It is a space for our customers and our community," said Liz V...

The Future of Slow Streets

The Future of Slow Streets By Eillie Anzilotti Over the past two years, Slow Streets have shown how simple designs that prioritize people can transform streets. Suddenly, streets across San Francisco filled with the sounds of kids playing and neighbors chatting. They filled with people on bicycles and people rolling in wheelchairs; with joggers and dog-walkers. The streets came to life. Initially, the SFMTA introduced Slow Streets as an emergency response to COVID-19. People needed space for recreating at a safe distance outdoors. And with Muni service reduced or suspended at the time, people needed ways to travel to essential destinations on foot or bike. To quickly meet these early pandemic needs, we implemented Slow Streets with simple signs and barricades. Over time, it became clear that Slow Streets served an even larger purpose. They became places for communities to come together. Neighbors organized events like scavenger hunts and Trick or Treat parties around their local Sl...

New top story from Time: Trump Touts Relationship With North Korea After Missile News

https://ift.tt/2Htz6QF Less than two weeks after North Korea showed off a new intercontinental ballistic missiles in a military parade, President Donald Trump touted how his Administration has handled the relations with the nation. “North Korea? We’re not in a war,” Trump said during Thursday’s presidential debate. “We have a good relationship. People don’t understand—having a good relationship with leaders of other countries is a good thing.” That relationship has been accompanied by a number of strategic setbacks for the U.S., and for stability in East Asia. Under Trump, North Korea has relentlessly pursued its military goal of being able to unleash a nuclear strike on the U.S. and its allies. Pyongyang is now believed to have a dozen or more nuclear warheads and an arsenal of several hundred short- and medium-range ballistic missiles capable of hitting South Korea, Japan, and with U.S. military bases and territories in the region. North Korea also has developed long-...

Central Subway Update – Projected to be Open for Service by the End of 2021

Central Subway Update – Projected to be Open for Service by the End of 2021 By A worker pauses on one of the massive escalators leading down to Rose Pak Chinatown Station's future lobby and fare gate area. The Central Subway project remains a key priority for the SFMTA, even during the current health crisis. Workers from the contractor and project staff continue to work every day while taking precautions and following best practices for physical distancing. Important progress was made over the last few months, but there were also challenges resulting in revisions to our target dates for the completion of construction. Heavy construction on stations was scheduled to finish this Summer, but now will continue into the Fall and finish by the end of the year. The date for revenue service when we can welcome our first customers is now the end of 2021. The opening of the subway will follow an extensive testing period because our number one goal is to open a service that is reliable ...

New Muni Service Changes Start Saturday, August 19

New Muni Service Changes Start Saturday, August 19 By Clive Tsuma 28R 19th Avenue will run on weekdays between 7 a.m. and 7 p.m. starting Monday, August 21.  Back to School  With SFUSD students returning to school August 16, many families who rely on Muni to get to school will see service increase after school as part of the new schedule. Because Muni vehicles often become crowded during morning peak hours and sometimes pass up stops when there is not enough room for more riders, families are encouraged to plan their trips ahead of time and hop on Muni early to make sure students get to school on time.  With every public school in the San Francisco Unified School District being served by at least one Muni route , students can expect extra Muni service on the first day of the school this fall and continue providing service throughout the school year. While the Muni service changes won’t be implemented until August 19, school tripper service will be offered starting Au...

Are Ride-hail Companies Serving Wheelchair Users in San Francisco?

Are Ride-hail Companies Serving Wheelchair Users in San Francisco? By Maddy Ruvolo Since 2013, ride-hail companies, also known as Transportation Network Companies or TNCs, have become increasingly visible on San Francisco’s streets. In the area of disability access and TNCs, while some individuals have reported increased mobility and independence because of TNCs, wheelchair users have largely been unable to use the service. Ride hailing apps generally did not offer wheelchair accessible vehicles—nor were they required to do so by the CPUC. While the SFMTA and our sister agency, the San Francisco County Transportation Authority (SFCTA) do not have the authority to regulate these services—a job entrusted statewide to the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC)—we have worked together to pay close attention to the impact they have on our transportation network and shaped our areas of studies, policies, and programs accordingly. For example, over the years, the City has documente...