Skip to main content

New top story from Time: How the Delta Variant Overtook Missouri: A Lesson for the Rest of the U.S.

https://ift.tt/3laOIdC

In mid-June, U.S. maps tracking the spread of COVID-19 began showing a cluster of cases growing in the middle of the country. The epicenter lay in Missouri, particularly its more rural and remote areas. At the time, Missouri had something that other states didn’t: the Delta variant.

To be fair, the highly transmissible Delta variant had at that point already crept into other states. But it had truly established itself in Missouri. Among the 25 states the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s website reported on at the time, Delta was showing up in less than 5% of swab samples in 15 of them. Colorado had the second-highest rate, at 12%. But Missouri was something else: nearly 30% of COVID-positive swabs were linked to the Delta variant. As of July 28, Missouri is reporting a seven-day average of new daily cases of 27.3 per 100,000 people, up from 5.4 during the first week of May, before Delta took hold there.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

In the weeks since, the Delta variant has become, or is on the brink of becoming, the dominant variant in every region of the continental U.S. The CDC is now reporting that Delta is so prevalent in the region encompassing Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska that it’s now effectively the only variant, accounting for an estimated 96% cases. These states, and others with high levels of Delta, including Florida, Louisiana and others in the Gulf region, are now seeing overall cases spike.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wAEsU/5/

As the first U.S. state to suffer a major Delta outbreak, Missouri is a harbinger for other regions of the country that also have low vaccination rates and a mix of rural areas and small towns with a handful of mid-sized cities—which is to say, much of the country. The following charts demonstrate the strength and swiftness of the Delta strain in a state particularly vulnerable to an outbreak—and why our efforts to stay ahead of the virus aren’t working.

Where Delta took hold

Missouri has a relatively low vaccination rate, with 41% of the population fully dosed as of July 26, compared to about 50% nationwide and 67.3% in Vermont, the most-vaccinated state. But Missouri’s vaccinated population isn’t uniformly distributed across the state. Boone County, home to 180,000 people and the state’s largest university, has the highest vaccination rate among Missouri counties at 48%. Places with larger populations like Kansas City (39%), St. Charles County (45%) and St. Louis County (also 45%) help pull the overall state vaccination rate higher.

But in smaller and generally more rural counties—that is to say, most of the state’s geographic area—vaccination rates drop off, leaving residents vulnerable. The below chart, which includes counties and cities with more than 20,000 people (collectively accounting for nine in 10 Missourians), shows that places with the highest COVID-19 case rates tend to be smaller counties with lower vaccination rates.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n0Ean/4/

What this chart doesn’t show is how much the Delta variant is to blame for Missouri’s high overall case rates. That’s because not all positive COVID-19 test swabs get sent to the lab for genomic sequencing—health agencies use only a random sample of swabs to estimate a variant’s prevalence. So there’s no way to know for sure who had the first Delta case in the state, or to do contact tracing specifically for Delta-infected people.

It ‘hit the gound running’

But there are other ways to track the Delta variant’s spread in Missouri and elsewhere. Marc Johnson, a professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at the University of Missouri, is a kind of COVID-19 detective, tracking where and when variants are popping up around the Show-Me State by analyzing samples from sewersheds across Missouri on a weekly basis. (Sewersheds are land areas that share a common wastewater system, and can be a useful epidemiological tool.) While Johnson can’t identify the first people who carried the Delta variant in Missouri, he knows roughly where they used the bathroom. Wastewater can also be a predictive tool, because the coronavirus can shed genetic material in feces days before an infected person shows symptoms—or meets up with friends at a bar.

On May 10, Johnson’s team found the Delta variant in Missouri for the first time, in a sample taken from a sewershed encompassing the Ozark town of Branson. Branson’s population is only 11,000, but it’s a hotspot for concerts and other summertime amusements that draw more than 8 million visitors annually, according to the city’s Convention and Visitors Bureau. For Johnson, that meant one thing: the Delta variant was in Branson, but it wasn’t going to stay there.

Read more: The 6 Factors That Will Determine the Severity of the COVID-19 Surge in the U.S. This Fall

It’s just a theory at this point that Delta’s intrastate journey was fueled by people visiting and then leaving Branson. But the variant popped up in other sewersheds a week after his team first discovered it there, including up north in Linn County, where the virus “hit the ground running,” says Johnson. With a population of just 12,000, Linn has recorded 250 cases since the beginning of May, accounting for nearly a third of the total cases recorded there since the start of the pandemic 17 months ago.

“It was on national news how bad it was there,” says Johnson. “I was looking at whether that was going to be the same in other places. And it generally was. Almost everywhere where the Delta appeared—there was sometimes a delay, sometimes it was three weeks later—but then, pretty much without exception, it did eventually lead to this big increase.”

A performer spreads his arms out to those seated in The South as he divides the room of diners at Dolly Parton's Stampede into factions of North and South which will cheer on their teams as they compete in various events like barrel riding, chicken chasing, and pig races in Branson, MO on July 17, 2021.
Jessica Rinaldi—The Boston Globe/Getty ImagesA performer spreads his arms out to those seated in The South as he divides the room of diners at Dolly Parton’s Stampede into factions of North and South which will cheer on their teams as they compete in various events like barrel riding, chicken chasing, and pig races in Branson, Mo. on July 17, 2021.

Given that the earliest upticks were happening in more rural and less vaccinated areas, Johnson initially thought that the virus was “picking and choosing” places to infect based on vaccination rates. But by early June, Delta appeared in more populated hubs like Springfield and Joplin, which have relatively higher vaccination rates—and local cases then ticked up.

The chart below shows all of the places where Johnson’s team is testing. Although the individual lines are hard to track, the trend is clear: once Delta rolls into town, it spreads fast, even in some places with relatively higher vaccination rates.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fAajC/6/

For example, Boone County, Missouri’s most vaccinated, is now reporting an average of 32.6 new daily cases per 100,000 people, compared with just 2.2 on Memorial Day. The city of Joplin had knocked its average daily count down to 3.4 cases per 100,000 in late March, but hasn’t dropped below 40 in the last month.

To Johnson, the spikes in even relatively highly vaccinated parts of Missouri are a reminder that, while the shots can reduce COVID-19’s severity, they can’t prevent 100% of infections. “People need to understand that the vaccines are extremely good at keeping people out of the hospital, at keeping people alive, but they’re not armor,” he says. “You can still be infected and can still infect other people. That doesn’t mean you can’t live your life, but if you don’t want to get sick, you can still use the easy precautions of wearing a mask if you’re in a crowded place, or avoiding indoor venues where people are screaming without masks on.” Indeed, the CDC’s newly revised mask mandate is based on thinking similar to Johnson’s.

Vaccinations are not keeping up

When COVID-19 vaccines started rolling out in the U.S. last winter, a pattern developed in Missouri, as it did elsewhere: each time the state expanded eligibility, eager people who were waiting to qualify would rush in. Then the numbers would drop off until eligibility expanded again. The last such bump was just after May 13, when people between the ages of 12 and 15 first became eligible.

But in early June, the number of people getting their first shot had fallen to levels not seen since the earliest days of the rollout, when supply was limited and appointments were hard to come by. In part, that’s because the virus appeared to be under control, reducing people’s sense of urgency. Missouri was at that point reporting fewer than 300 new cases a day, giving the appearance that the virus was being snuffed out—even though Delta was already circulating.

As the chart below shows, Missouri’s vaccinations are on the rise again. And this time, it’s not because of expanded eligibility—it’s because people who have been eligible for months yet remained on the fence are finally coming around, possibly out of fear of the Delta variant.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/edXsy/6/

A closer look at the summertime uptick shows that people all over the state are now getting their first shots—including in places with lower vaccination rates and higher case rates. While that’s good news, it’s not entirely a reason to celebrate. Even given the recent uptick, the gap between Missouri’s most protected and least protected areas remains staggeringly wide; the counties with above-average case rates have lower initial vaccination rates than counties with below-average case rates had two months ago.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9GXci/2/

For now, Delta is hammering some pockets of the U.S., like Missouri and nearby states, far more so than others. But cases are rising across the country, suggesting we may be in the midst of yet another wave, especially in under-vaccinated areas. And when the virus is allowed to spread, it has an opportunity to mutate into new strains, which could prove even more capable of evading our vaccines. The Delta surge is also unlikely to die out before the school year, when millions of children—many of them unvaccinated—will be mingling together in classrooms. More and more employers, meanwhile, are demanding remote workers return to the office, though some are mandating vaccines or testing. With so many factors in flux, it’s impossible to predict how the U.S. Delta surge will play out. But if Missouri offers any lesson for the rest of the country, it’s that it’s far from time to let our guard down.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

New top story from Time: House Passes President Biden’s $1.9 Trillion COVID-19 Relief Bill

https://ift.tt/2ZVMCSX WASHINGTON — The House approved a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill in a win for President Joe Biden, even as top Democrats tried assuring agitated progressives that they’d revive their derailed drive to boost the minimum wage. The new president’s vision for flushing cash to individuals, businesses, states and cities battered by COVID-19 passed on a near party-line 219-212 vote early Saturday. That ships the massive measure to the Senate, where Democrats seem bent on resuscitating their minimum wage push and fights could erupt over state aid and other issues. Democrats said the still-faltering economy and the half-million American lives lost demanded quick, decisive action. GOP lawmakers, they said, were out of step with a public that polling shows largely views the bill favorably. “I am a happy camper tonight,” Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., said Friday. “This is what America needs. Republicans, you ought to be a part of this. But if you’re not,

New top story from Time: Latest Tests Bring Israel a Step Closer to Commercial Drones

https://ift.tt/3lyZxGe TEL AVIV, Israel — Dozens of drones floated through the skies of Tel Aviv on Monday, ferrying cartons of ice cream and sushi across the city in an experiment that officials hope provided a glimpse of the not-too-distant future. Israel’s National Drone Initiative, a government program, carried out the drill to prepare for a world in which large quantities of commercial deliveries will be made by drones to take pressure off highly congested urban roads. The two-year program aims to apply the capabilities of Israeli drone companies to establish a nationwide network where customers can order goods and have them delivered to pick up spots. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] The project, now in the third of eight stages, is still in its infancy and faces many questions about security and logistics. “We had 700 test flights at the start of this year and now we are close to 9,000 flights,” said Daniella Partem, from Israel Innovation Authority, a partner in th

https://ift.tt/eA8V8J सिद्धार्थ रॉय कपूर फिल्म्स कि अगली सीरीज़ विलियम डेलरिम्पल कि बेस्टसेलर, 'द एनार्की: पर आधारित होगी

सिद्धार्थ रॉय कपूर के प्रोडक्शन 'रॉय कपूर फिल्म्स' ने हालही में अवार्ड विनिंग इतिहासकार और लेखक विलियम डेलरिम्पल की बेस्ट सेलिंग हिस्टोरिकल बुक ‘द अनार्की: द रिलेंटलेस राइज़ ऑफ़ द ईस्ट इंडिया कंपनी' के आधिकारिक राइट्स हासिल कर इसे सीरीज़ के from टेलीविजन की खबरें | Television News in Hindi | TV Serials Update in Hindi – FilmiBeat Hindi http:/hindi.filmibeat.com/television/siddharth-roy-kapoor-next-web-series-will-be-based-on-anarchy-090499.html?utm_source=/rss/filmibeat-hindi-television-fb.xml&utm_medium=23.11.231.156&utm_campaign=client-rss

New top story from Time: Japan’s Prime Minister Abe Reportedly Stepping Down Over Health Concerns

https://ift.tt/32yNoGh (TOKYO) — Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has expressed his intention to step down due to his declining health, according to reports Friday by NHK and other Japanese media. The Prime Minister’s Office said the report could not be immediately confirmed, but that Abe was believed to be meeting top ruling officials at the party headquarters. The Liberal Democratic Party spokesman did not answer the phone. Concerns about Abe’s chronic health issues, simmering since earlier this summer, intensified this month when he visited a Tokyo hospital two weeks in a row for unspecified health checkups. Abe, whose term ends in September 2021, is expected to stay on until a new party leader is elected and formally approved by the parliament. He had abruptly resigned from his first stint in office in 2007 due to his health, which was fueling concerns about his recent condition. Abe on Monday became Japan’s longest serving prime minister by consecutive days in of

New top story from Time: Justice Department Charges 8 in Chinese Harassment Plot in U.S.

https://ift.tt/37P9856 (WASHINGTON) — The Justice Department has charged eight people with working on behalf of the Chinese government in a pressure campaign aimed at coercing a New Jersey man who was wanted by Beijing into returning to China to face charges, officials said Wednesday. The prosecution, which Justice Department officials said was the first of its kind, accuses the defendants of participating in a Chinese government operation known as “Fox Hunt” that was ostensibly created to help Beijing locate fugitives abroad but that U.S. officials say in practice relied on intimidation and bullying to go after dissidents and political opponents. Five of the eight, including an American private investigator who was hired as part of the effort, were arrested Wednesday. The other three are believed to be in China. All eight were charged with conspiring to act as illegal agents for China in a case filed in federal court in Brooklyn. “Without coordination with our governmen

New top story from Time: The Reopening of Springsteen on Broadway Brought Broadway Out of Hibernation—and One Packed Theater Into a Brighter Future

https://ift.tt/3A6wS0a The city that never sleeps is still a little sleepy, unsure of how to move its joints and muscles as it awakens from its forced hibernation . Although Times Square is now almost as brightly lit as ever, it’s remarkably hard to find a bar that will serve a drink after 11 p.m. On a late-June Saturday night, Eighth Ave. around 42nd Street was vibrating with young people: guys imported from the outer boroughs and beyond in their baggy, rumpled shorts, young women in elastic spangled mini-dresses making their first outing after a year lying in a drawer, men in mardi gras beads and the tiniest of tank tops ready to make the most of the final days of Pride month . Yet it was hard to know exactly what all these people were doing there, other than taking their place in a kind of Brownian-movement minuet under the cheerfully garish lights. Because Times Square cannot be itself while Broadway—meaning not the actual street but the constellation of live shows around

More 20 MPH Streets Coming Soon Near You

More 20 MPH Streets Coming Soon Near You By Christine Osorio Last October when California Assembly Bill 43 (Friedman) was signed into law, we posted a blog about which gave cities new flexibility in setting speed limits—specifically reducing them. “Speed Management,” a reference that is still in development, focused on reducing speed limits in key business activity districts where at least 50% are dining or retail. Since the bill went into effect last month, we’ve already started lowering speed limits by 5 MPH (from 25 MPH to 20 MPH) in the first phase of approved corridors, four of which have been implemented:  San Bruno Avenue, from Silver to Paul avenues (Completed January 2022)  Polk Street, from Filbert to Sutter streets (Completed January 2022)  Haight Street, from Stanyan Street to Central Avenue and from Webster to Steiner streets (Completed February 2022)  24th Street, from Diamond to Chattanooga streets and from Valencia Street to San Bruno Avenue (Completed

New top story from Time: Department of Homeland Security Warns of Politically Motivated Violence

https://ift.tt/2NINiIA WASHINGTON — The Department of Homeland Security issued a national terrorism bulletin Wednesday warning of the lingering potential for violence from people motivated by antigovernment sentiment after President Joe Biden’s election, suggesting the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol may embolden extremists and set the stage for additional attacks. The department did not cite any specific plots, but pointed to “a heightened threat environment across the United States” that it believes “will persist” for weeks after Biden’s Jan. 20 inauguration. It is not uncommon for the federal government to warn local law enforcement through bulletins about the prospect for violence tied to a particular event or date, such as July 4. But this particular bulletin, issued through the department’s National Terrorism Advisory System, is notable because it effectively places the Biden administration into the politically charged debate over how to describe or characterize acts

In-Person Pride Parade & Celebrations Return This Month!

In-Person Pride Parade & Celebrations Return This Month! By Pamela Johnson The SFMTA is happy to join San Francisco Pride celebrations when they return to in-person events this month as the city continues its recovery from the pandemic. This year’s theme is “Love will Keep Us Together.” The Trans March is happening on Friday, June 24 and the Pride Parade is on Sunday, June 26. SFMTA staff are, of course, an important part of the LGBTQIA+ community that keeps SF moving with Pride. Pride is an opportunity for us to demonstrate our continued support of the LGBTQIA+ community, promoting our core values of respect, inclusivity and integrity.  History/Background of SF Pride   San Francisco had its first Pride celebration in 1970. For more than three decades the LGBTQIA+ community and their allies have been moving San Francisco forward to become a better, safer, and more equitable world for the LGBTQIA+ community and the city a better place for people to live, work and enjoy.    His

New top story from Time: ‘Do Not Hold Grudges.’ Joe Biden’s Notes Reveal Talking Points About Kamala Harris

https://ift.tt/2X4natB (WILMINGTON, Del.) — Joe Biden was uncharacteristically tight-lipped on Tuesday about the final stretch of his search for a vice president. But the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee seemed prepared to talk about at least one leading contender: California Sen. Kamala Harris. As he took questions from reporters on Tuesday, Biden held notes that were captured by an Associated Press photographer. Harris’ name was scrawled across the top, followed by five talking points. “Do not hold grudges.” “Campaigned with me & Jill.” “Talented.” “Great help to campaign.” “Great respect for her.” Those are all observations Biden has made about Harris before. But they take on new significance following a recent Politico report that one of Biden’s closest friends and a co-chair of his vice presidential vetting committee, former Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd, still harbors concerns about Harris’ tough debate stage performance and that she hasn’t expressed reg