Skip to main content

New top story from Time: How the Delta Variant Overtook Missouri: A Lesson for the Rest of the U.S.

https://ift.tt/3laOIdC

In mid-June, U.S. maps tracking the spread of COVID-19 began showing a cluster of cases growing in the middle of the country. The epicenter lay in Missouri, particularly its more rural and remote areas. At the time, Missouri had something that other states didn’t: the Delta variant.

To be fair, the highly transmissible Delta variant had at that point already crept into other states. But it had truly established itself in Missouri. Among the 25 states the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s website reported on at the time, Delta was showing up in less than 5% of swab samples in 15 of them. Colorado had the second-highest rate, at 12%. But Missouri was something else: nearly 30% of COVID-positive swabs were linked to the Delta variant. As of July 28, Missouri is reporting a seven-day average of new daily cases of 27.3 per 100,000 people, up from 5.4 during the first week of May, before Delta took hold there.
[time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”]

In the weeks since, the Delta variant has become, or is on the brink of becoming, the dominant variant in every region of the continental U.S. The CDC is now reporting that Delta is so prevalent in the region encompassing Missouri, Iowa, Kansas and Nebraska that it’s now effectively the only variant, accounting for an estimated 96% cases. These states, and others with high levels of Delta, including Florida, Louisiana and others in the Gulf region, are now seeing overall cases spike.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/wAEsU/5/

As the first U.S. state to suffer a major Delta outbreak, Missouri is a harbinger for other regions of the country that also have low vaccination rates and a mix of rural areas and small towns with a handful of mid-sized cities—which is to say, much of the country. The following charts demonstrate the strength and swiftness of the Delta strain in a state particularly vulnerable to an outbreak—and why our efforts to stay ahead of the virus aren’t working.

Where Delta took hold

Missouri has a relatively low vaccination rate, with 41% of the population fully dosed as of July 26, compared to about 50% nationwide and 67.3% in Vermont, the most-vaccinated state. But Missouri’s vaccinated population isn’t uniformly distributed across the state. Boone County, home to 180,000 people and the state’s largest university, has the highest vaccination rate among Missouri counties at 48%. Places with larger populations like Kansas City (39%), St. Charles County (45%) and St. Louis County (also 45%) help pull the overall state vaccination rate higher.

But in smaller and generally more rural counties—that is to say, most of the state’s geographic area—vaccination rates drop off, leaving residents vulnerable. The below chart, which includes counties and cities with more than 20,000 people (collectively accounting for nine in 10 Missourians), shows that places with the highest COVID-19 case rates tend to be smaller counties with lower vaccination rates.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/n0Ean/4/

What this chart doesn’t show is how much the Delta variant is to blame for Missouri’s high overall case rates. That’s because not all positive COVID-19 test swabs get sent to the lab for genomic sequencing—health agencies use only a random sample of swabs to estimate a variant’s prevalence. So there’s no way to know for sure who had the first Delta case in the state, or to do contact tracing specifically for Delta-infected people.

It ‘hit the gound running’

But there are other ways to track the Delta variant’s spread in Missouri and elsewhere. Marc Johnson, a professor of molecular microbiology and immunology at the University of Missouri, is a kind of COVID-19 detective, tracking where and when variants are popping up around the Show-Me State by analyzing samples from sewersheds across Missouri on a weekly basis. (Sewersheds are land areas that share a common wastewater system, and can be a useful epidemiological tool.) While Johnson can’t identify the first people who carried the Delta variant in Missouri, he knows roughly where they used the bathroom. Wastewater can also be a predictive tool, because the coronavirus can shed genetic material in feces days before an infected person shows symptoms—or meets up with friends at a bar.

On May 10, Johnson’s team found the Delta variant in Missouri for the first time, in a sample taken from a sewershed encompassing the Ozark town of Branson. Branson’s population is only 11,000, but it’s a hotspot for concerts and other summertime amusements that draw more than 8 million visitors annually, according to the city’s Convention and Visitors Bureau. For Johnson, that meant one thing: the Delta variant was in Branson, but it wasn’t going to stay there.

Read more: The 6 Factors That Will Determine the Severity of the COVID-19 Surge in the U.S. This Fall

It’s just a theory at this point that Delta’s intrastate journey was fueled by people visiting and then leaving Branson. But the variant popped up in other sewersheds a week after his team first discovered it there, including up north in Linn County, where the virus “hit the ground running,” says Johnson. With a population of just 12,000, Linn has recorded 250 cases since the beginning of May, accounting for nearly a third of the total cases recorded there since the start of the pandemic 17 months ago.

“It was on national news how bad it was there,” says Johnson. “I was looking at whether that was going to be the same in other places. And it generally was. Almost everywhere where the Delta appeared—there was sometimes a delay, sometimes it was three weeks later—but then, pretty much without exception, it did eventually lead to this big increase.”

A performer spreads his arms out to those seated in The South as he divides the room of diners at Dolly Parton's Stampede into factions of North and South which will cheer on their teams as they compete in various events like barrel riding, chicken chasing, and pig races in Branson, MO on July 17, 2021.
Jessica Rinaldi—The Boston Globe/Getty ImagesA performer spreads his arms out to those seated in The South as he divides the room of diners at Dolly Parton’s Stampede into factions of North and South which will cheer on their teams as they compete in various events like barrel riding, chicken chasing, and pig races in Branson, Mo. on July 17, 2021.

Given that the earliest upticks were happening in more rural and less vaccinated areas, Johnson initially thought that the virus was “picking and choosing” places to infect based on vaccination rates. But by early June, Delta appeared in more populated hubs like Springfield and Joplin, which have relatively higher vaccination rates—and local cases then ticked up.

The chart below shows all of the places where Johnson’s team is testing. Although the individual lines are hard to track, the trend is clear: once Delta rolls into town, it spreads fast, even in some places with relatively higher vaccination rates.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/fAajC/6/

For example, Boone County, Missouri’s most vaccinated, is now reporting an average of 32.6 new daily cases per 100,000 people, compared with just 2.2 on Memorial Day. The city of Joplin had knocked its average daily count down to 3.4 cases per 100,000 in late March, but hasn’t dropped below 40 in the last month.

To Johnson, the spikes in even relatively highly vaccinated parts of Missouri are a reminder that, while the shots can reduce COVID-19’s severity, they can’t prevent 100% of infections. “People need to understand that the vaccines are extremely good at keeping people out of the hospital, at keeping people alive, but they’re not armor,” he says. “You can still be infected and can still infect other people. That doesn’t mean you can’t live your life, but if you don’t want to get sick, you can still use the easy precautions of wearing a mask if you’re in a crowded place, or avoiding indoor venues where people are screaming without masks on.” Indeed, the CDC’s newly revised mask mandate is based on thinking similar to Johnson’s.

Vaccinations are not keeping up

When COVID-19 vaccines started rolling out in the U.S. last winter, a pattern developed in Missouri, as it did elsewhere: each time the state expanded eligibility, eager people who were waiting to qualify would rush in. Then the numbers would drop off until eligibility expanded again. The last such bump was just after May 13, when people between the ages of 12 and 15 first became eligible.

But in early June, the number of people getting their first shot had fallen to levels not seen since the earliest days of the rollout, when supply was limited and appointments were hard to come by. In part, that’s because the virus appeared to be under control, reducing people’s sense of urgency. Missouri was at that point reporting fewer than 300 new cases a day, giving the appearance that the virus was being snuffed out—even though Delta was already circulating.

As the chart below shows, Missouri’s vaccinations are on the rise again. And this time, it’s not because of expanded eligibility—it’s because people who have been eligible for months yet remained on the fence are finally coming around, possibly out of fear of the Delta variant.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/edXsy/6/

A closer look at the summertime uptick shows that people all over the state are now getting their first shots—including in places with lower vaccination rates and higher case rates. While that’s good news, it’s not entirely a reason to celebrate. Even given the recent uptick, the gap between Missouri’s most protected and least protected areas remains staggeringly wide; the counties with above-average case rates have lower initial vaccination rates than counties with below-average case rates had two months ago.

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/9GXci/2/

For now, Delta is hammering some pockets of the U.S., like Missouri and nearby states, far more so than others. But cases are rising across the country, suggesting we may be in the midst of yet another wave, especially in under-vaccinated areas. And when the virus is allowed to spread, it has an opportunity to mutate into new strains, which could prove even more capable of evading our vaccines. The Delta surge is also unlikely to die out before the school year, when millions of children—many of them unvaccinated—will be mingling together in classrooms. More and more employers, meanwhile, are demanding remote workers return to the office, though some are mandating vaccines or testing. With so many factors in flux, it’s impossible to predict how the U.S. Delta surge will play out. But if Missouri offers any lesson for the rest of the country, it’s that it’s far from time to let our guard down.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Muni Moves You!

Muni Moves You! By Jeanne Brophy This week we are launching a campaign to welcome back Muni riders as San Francisco continues to move further into pandemic recovery. The campaign encourages transit trips to destinations throughout the city to reconnect you to the people and places that define our city and shape the communities we belong to. As many of us adopt new travel patterns for work commutes, school trips with visits to neighborhood businesses, and cultural and sporting activities, Muni offers a reliable, safe option to move about the city. The launch of the campaign coincides with steadily increasing ridership during the work week and even more increases for weekend ridership. This is good news for SF. Increased ridership will help the city wet its climate goals and reduce traffic congestion. Sustained lower transit ridership can have negative implications for the environment and traffic congestion. The campaign graphics feature the popular Muni “worm” logo originally desig...

New top story from Time: Prosecutor Who Led Michael Cohen Investigation Appointed to Replace U.S. Attorney Berman

https://ift.tt/2AYnYYU (NEW YORK) — A federal prosecutor who held a key role in the case against President Donald Trump’s former personal attorney worked Monday to restore calm to the Manhattan prosecutor’s office, following the abrupt ouster of her predecessor. Audrey Strauss, the newly appointed acting U.S. attorney, sent an email to the staff Saturday night within hours of the announcement by U.S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman that he would leave his position and would be replaced by her. The 72-year-old Strauss, a Democrat, will be only the second woman to lead one of the nation’s most premiere districts, home to famous mob trials, terrorism cases and now, probes involving the president’s allies. Her allies say she is a thoughtful, careful lawyer with decades of experience both as a prosecutor and defense attorney. The extraordinary departure of Berman, a Trump donor who won over critics with his investigations, started with Attorney General William Barr’s abrupt annou...

New top story from Time: Germany Has Officially Recognized Colonial-Era Atrocities in Namibia. But For Some, Reconciliation Is a Long Way Off

https://ift.tt/3fVRkaO The German government formally recognized colonial-era atrocities against the Herero and Nama people in modern-day Namibia for the first time, referring to the early 20th century massacres as “genocide” on Friday and pledging to pay a “ gesture to recognize the immense suffering inflicted.” “In light of the historical and moral responsibility of Germany, we will ask Namibia and the descendants of the victims for forgiveness,” said German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas in a statement , adding that the German government will fund projects related to “reconstruction and the development” of Namibia amounting to €1.1 billion ($1.3 billion). The sum will be paid out over 30 years and must primarily benefit the descendants of the Herero and Nama, Agence France-Presse reported . [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Although it’s a significant step for a once colonial power to agree such a deal with a former colony, there’s skepticism among some experts and ob...

Delhi's air quality hits 'very poor' level first time this season https://ift.tt/2IqcAsn

The national capital's air quality was in the “very poor” category on Tuesday morning, the first time this season, with calm winds and low temperatures allowing the accumulation of pollutants. According to the Ministry of Earth Sciences' Air Quality Early Warning System for Delhi, an increase in farm fires in Punjab, Haryana and neighbouring regions of Pakistan is also going to impact the air quality in Delhi-NCR.

Delhi: NDMC rolls out property tax amnesty schemes https://ift.tt/2KWiAum

 North Delhi Mayor Jai Prakash on Thursday said the NDMC has introduced two property tax amnesty schemes for people including one for those living in 544 unauthorised colonies that were regularised.

India vs Australia 4th Test Day 1: Follow Live Updates from Brisbane https://ift.tt/2LULefq

India vs Australia 4th Test Day 1 Live: Follow Live Updates from Brisbane IND vs AUS Live:  Hello and welcome to the live coverage of India vs Australia 4th Test Day 1 from Brisbane on indiatvnews.com. A bruised and battered Indian team will line up against hosts Australia at an intimidating venue -- The Gabba -- where the Kangaroos haven't lost since 1988. India have never won a Test at The Gabba, plunging the injury-ravaged touring side into further misery. More than turning the tables in Brisbane, the Ajinkya Rahane-led side will be aiming for a draw, especially when the touring party's dressing room resembles a hospital ward. After enduring a horror batting collapse in the Test series opener in Adelaide, the Indian team has put up impressive performances in Melbourne and Sydney, especially when they were dealing with an injury-plagued unit. After a gutsy and awe-inspiring show in Sydney, the fourth Test will be nothing but a 'flight for glory' for the Indian side. ...

New top story from Time: The Current COVID-19 Vaccine Card is Terrible. We Asked Professional Designers to Create a Better Version

https://ift.tt/3DmwDzK It’s hard to move through the modern world without carrying a full deck of personal cards with you: driver’s license, insurance card, credit cards, bank card, Medicare card, student ID card and more. They are the transactional visas of contemporary life and they’ve been designed with that role in mind—durable, portable, easy to use, hard to forge. The newest addition is the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s COVID-19 vaccination card—and it violates almost every rule of good design: it’s made of perishable paper; it’s too big to fit in most wallets; it’s entirely analog—with small spaces for handwritten entries, which can be hard to read at best and entirely illegible at worst; it’s black and white and thus a cinch for forgers; it’s unencrypted—with information displayed on the face of the card rather than hidden in a QR or barcode—meaning that if you do misplace it, your health information is out in the world. What’s more, the card conne...

FOX NEWS: California couple gets married at 'most beautiful' Taco Bell: 'It was the best of both worlds' Analicia Garcia, 24, and Kyle Howser, 25, from Sacramento, California, got married on Tuesday, Oct. 26 and had their reception at the famous Pacifica, California, Taco Bell.

California couple gets married at 'most beautiful' Taco Bell: 'It was the best of both worlds' Analicia Garcia, 24, and Kyle Howser, 25, from Sacramento, California, got married on Tuesday, Oct. 26 and had their reception at the famous Pacifica, California, Taco Bell. via FOX NEWS https://ift.tt/mr8YkTHtA

New top story from Time: U.S. Senate Votes to Start Work on a $1 Trillion National Infrastructure Plan

https://ift.tt/3iZ16ur WASHINGTON — The Senate voted Wednesday night to begin work on a nearly $1 trillion national infrastructure plan after President Joe Biden and a bipartisan group of senators reached agreement on major provisions of the package that is a key part of his presidential agenda. Biden welcomed the accord as one that would show America can “do big things” — with the most significant long-term investments in nearly a century, he said, on par with building the transcontinental railroad or the Interstate highway system. “This deal signals to the world that our democracy can function,” Biden said in a statement. “We will once again transform America and propel us into the future.” [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] The rare bipartisan showing, on 67-32 vote, signaled the interest among senators in starting the process to consider the infrastructure package. But it’s unclear if enough Republicans will eventually join Democrats to support final passage. The proced...

Smarter Traffic Signals Prioritize Transit and People

Smarter Traffic Signals Prioritize Transit and People By Robert Lim Have you ever wondered how traffic signals could better balance the needs of all road users, whether driving, bicycling, walking or taking Muni? The SFMTA is rolling out its Connected Corridor Pilot this month to use transit platform and traffic signal sensor data to inform signal timing adjustments. The pilot also aims to collect information to support transit efficiency and street safety improvements.  Traffic engineers use signal timing adjustments as a tool to prioritize the flow of travel in specific directions or for different travel modes – Muni, people walking or driving – to meet the changing demands of the road network across different timepoints in a day. The Connected Corridors Pilot seeks to push the envelope of innovation by investing in advanced technologies, funded through a U.S. Department of Transportation (USDOT) grant. These tools will better position the city to serve the potential future ne...