Tech Talk: Muni Predictions 101

Tech Talk: Muni Predictions 101
By Christopher Ward

A picture containing contractors speaking with a Muni Rider as customer information displays are being installed in a transit shelter. New Customer Information Systems are being installed and causing customer curiosity!

Got a burning question about the SFMTA’s Muni predictions that are made by our Next Generation Customer Information System (CIS)? We’ve got answers! Below are some of the frequently asked questions from Muni customers. Send us yours!

Where do Muni predictions come from?

Muni predictions come from data provided by multiple SFMTA systems including equipment on our vehicles. Real-time predictions are based on the real-time locations of Muni vehicles. A computer algorithm compares the real-time data to past travel times based on time of day, day of week, season and other factors that affect travel to predict future arrival times. Travel patterns in this historic data are applied to real-time data to generate accurate Muni predictions.

When the system has no real-time information, it uses Muni schedules to make predictions. This often occurs at or near terminals and during service changes. However, schedule data isn’t as reliable as real-time data, particularly because the SFMTA has made Muni service more reliable by shifting away from using schedules to headway management, scheduling service at regularly spaced intervals to reduce gaps and bunching, rather than clock times.

What factors impact predictions?

The two main problems with predictions are 1) vehicles in service but not showing up in the Customer Information System (we call those “surprise vehicles”) and 2) predictions made from the schedule, but the vehicle doesn't show up (we call those “ghost vehicles”).

A “surprise vehicle” is when a bus or train is running but it is not picked up by the real-time position data feed. This may be because of damaged equipment, a vehicle not signed into the system when it departs the division, or when changes are not entered into the system. When a vehicle is missing from the system, the wait times at stops appear longer than they actually will be. This happens because the prediction system does not “see” one of the vehicles.

A “ghost vehicle” usually occurs at stops close to the start of the line. You might see this at the stop when looking at the prediction countdown. When the count gets to zero, no vehicle appears! This happens because the prediction system is not picking up any vehicles while they are at the terminal and before they start the route. This results in the countdown relying on the schedule, even if the vehicle is delayed. If a vehicle is scheduled but not coming, then the countdown will end and there will be no vehicle. The system relies on the vehicle data when it is available, otherwise it will show the schedule information that may not be accurate.

The same problem occurs with trains as with buses but at an increased rate, because trains cannot pass each other like buses. Because of this, there are often service adjustments made at the control center to manage gaps that result in inaccurate predictions.

Why do different apps have different predictions sometimes?

The SFMTA generates vehicle information and shares this data openly for anyone to use cost-free. Third party apps like Transit, Google and Waze, as well as “mom and pop” apps, each have their own way of taking in and making use of the data that we provide.

These third parties are independent of the SFMTA and we do not keep track of the quality of their predictions. If customers experience problems, we recommend reporting the problem directly to the third-party and checking the predictions at SFMTA.com/Routes.

What does it mean when a Muni display says, “no predictions available?” 

The “no predictions” message displays when there is no real-time vehicle data to generate predictions, either because the system is down or a vehicle is not logged into the system. This does not mean that isn’t service. Buses and trains are still running. If there is a service issue affecting bus or train operation, the SFMTA will display relevant information, make audio announcements, send out email and SMS alerts and post on Twitter.  

What new features will be added and how can I learn more? 

The Next Generation CIS screens now display real-time vehicle locations on a map and real-time on-board vehicle capacity information, along with arrival prediction times.

Some of the next features we plan to roll out are real-time alerts such as reroutes and elevator availability. We’re also improving terminal predictions, and we are working on multiple MuniMobile app upgrades.

For more information visit our CIS project and System Updates websites!

Published March 13, 2023 at 10:27PM
https://ift.tt/P9nFb4S

Comments

New top story from Time: All 53 People Aboard Indonesia Submarine Declared Dead After Vessel’s Wreckage Found

https://ift.tt/3ezrzg5 ANYUWANGI, Indonesia — Indonesia’s military on Sunday officially said all 53 crew members from a submarine that sank and broke apart last week are dead, and that search teams had located the vessel’s wreckage on the ocean floor. The grim announcement comes a day after Indonesia said the submarine was considered sunk, not merely missing , but did not explicitly say whether the crew was dead. Officials had also said the KRI Nanggala 402’s oxygen supply would have run out early Saturday, three days after vessel went missing off the resort island of Bali. “We received underwater pictures that are confirmed as the parts of the submarine, including its rear vertical rudder, anchors, outer pressure body, embossed dive rudder and other ship parts,” military chief Hadi Tjahjanto told reporters in Bali on Sunday. “With this authentic evidence, we can declare that KRI Nanggala 402 has sunk and all the crew members are dead,” Tjahjanto said. An underwater ro...

New top story from Time: The Capital Gazette Found Justice. But Can the Newspaper Survive?

https://ift.tt/3l5r0iS I sat 10 feet behind the man who plotted to murder me. It was the final day of his sanity trial, giving a jury power to decide if he understood what he was doing three years ago when he the illusion of safety created by the glass doors of our Annapolis newsroom . Among the evidence were two years spent stockpiling weapons, identifying targets while sitting in the office parking lot with a camera, statements that he hoped to appear insane, letters taking responsibility for his attack and a revelation that after murdering four people, he put down his shotgun to surrender. Then he spotted a survivor under a desk, picked up the weapon and obliterated one more life. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] That was Gerald Fischman, a brilliant opinion page editor and my friend for 25 years. He died during minutes of carnage on June 28, 2018 along with Rob Hiaasen, Wendi Winters, John McNamara and Rebecca Smith. I listened to the man’s public defender offer a ...

New top story from Time: ‘One Slip of the Tongue Could Ruin Things.’ Bipartisan Talks on Police Reform Advance—Delicately

https://ift.tt/2ScOdmJ A small bipartisan group of lawmakers in Washington are making an urgent push to get a police reform bill passed in Congress in the wake of a Minneapolis jury finding Derek Chauvin, a white former police officer, guilty of murdering George Floyd, a Black man, last May. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle say they are optimistic that renewed bipartisan talks will result in a deal that can pass both of the closely split chambers of Congress. President Joe Biden has given lawmakers a deadline to get it done by the anniversary of Floyd’s death on May 25. “Congress should act,” said Biden during his joint address on Wednesday. “We have a giant opportunity to bend the arc of the moral universe toward justice.” The way forward in reforming America’s police force must now be found in a legislative body regularly paralyzed by partisanship and disagreement, on an issue that has become so divisive that compromise can translate to losing support from member...

New top story from Time: Why It’s Crucial to Talk to Kids About Gender Pronouns

https://ift.tt/3fKr8kO It’s only been a week since Katherine Locke’s newest book was published, and they’ve already received messages from parents of trans and nonbinary children saying how much it spoke to them. The book, What Are Your Words? , tells the story of a kid named Ari, who is gender fluid and nonbinary and tries out different pronouns depending on how they feel on different days. Aimed at readers aged 4 to 8, the book follows Ari and his nonbinary uncle Lior as they try to figure out what words fit them. “I certainly didn’t grow up talking about pronouns that weren’t she/her, he/him, and I didn’t know how to have these conversations either,” says Locke, who released their first picture book last November and has previously written novels for young adults and adults. “It’s been really gratifying to see people embrace the book and its concepts.” [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] With colorful illustrations by Anne Passchier, the book emphasizes that pronouns are...

New top story from Time: ‘What Will Happen When the World Looks Away?’ An Afghan Teacher on How the World Can Protect Girls From the Taliban

https://ift.tt/3sQiXrP Pashtana Durrani knows that she is on the Taliban’s radar. The 23-year-old teacher has been fiercely advocating for girls’ education since the group started making advances in Afghanistan after the U.S. announced it would withdraw troops from the country by Aug. 31 . But despite being told that she is not safe, Durrani is staying put. “I didn’t leave because I just felt like it’s my responsibility to do right by my people,” she says. “This is not just about me. This is about the girls of Afghanistan.” On Aug. 15, the Taliban took control of Afghanistan’s capital 20 years after being ousted from power, triggering a chaotic rush to the Kabul airport as foreign citizens and many Afghans tried to flee the country. Even though the Taliban has promised to respect the rights of women and religious minorities this time, many remain skeptical given its brutal history of oppression. According to Human Rights Watch, schools have been shut down and women have ...

New top story from Time: Supreme Court Delivers Two Major Voting Victories to Democrats. But the Battle May Not Be Over

https://ift.tt/3ea9ynJ The Supreme Court on Wednesday handed Democrats major victories in election legal battles in two critical swing states, letting extended deadlines for mail-in ballots in North Carolina and Pennsylvania remain in place for now. The Supreme Court declined to expedite a decision on Pennsylvania’s extended deadline for receiving mail-in ballots, virtually guaranteeing it will remain in place through the election, and, in a separate ruling, declined to halt an appeals court ruling that kept the North Carolina deadline in place. Justices Samuel Alito, Neil Gorsuch and Clarence Thomas dissented in both of the rulings. The Court’s newest justice, Amy Coney Barrett, who was confirmed on Monday, did not participate because she did not have adequate time to review the filings, according to the court’s public information officer. As a result of the rulings, mail-in ballots postmarked by Election Day can be received through Nov. 6th in Pennsylvania and Nov. 12 ...

New top story from Time: Blast Outside Kabul Airport Kills 2, Wounds 15, Russia Says

https://ift.tt/3yjY6hU KABUL, Afghanistan — A suicide attack outside Kabul’s airport Thursday killed at least 2 people and wounded 15, Russian officials said. Large crowds of people have massed outside the airport as they try to flee the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Western nations had warned earlier in the day of a possible attack at the airport in the waning days of a massive airlift. Suspicion for any attack targeting the crowds would likely fall on the Islamic State group and not the Taliban, who have been deployed at the airport’s gates trying to control the mass of people. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] The Pentagon confirmed the blast, and Russian Foreign Ministry gave the official casualty count. The explosion went off in a crowd of people waiting to enter the airport, according to Adam Khan, an Afghan waiting nearby. He said several people appeared to have been killed or wounded, including some who lost body parts. Several countries urged people to avoid t...

New top story from Time: Summer Tutoring Is Not the Solution to a Lost Year of Schooling. It Might Hurt Kids More Than It Helps Them

https://ift.tt/2Wpnci1 Summer tutoring has become the rallying cry by politicians and pundits as a way to address the learning loss from months of remote and hybrid learning. A frightening number of students did not show up to class last school year, including up to 15% of kindergarteners in some school districts. But tutoring is the not the easy solution many think it is. Before parents sign up their children, they need to do their own homework and, except under specific conditions, they should not pursue tutoring. Simply put, most children do not benefit long term from standard tutoring. Moreover, current trends in supplemental education can end up hurting children. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Tutoring can work well under certain conditions for children. Unfortunately, those conditions are quite strict. First, tutors should have a strong command of the content and must find ways to connect it to the student’s interests. Second, tutoring is more effective when ...

New top story from Time: Facebook’s Market Value Climbs Over $1 Trillion as Judge Dismisses Antitrust Suits Against the Social Network

https://ift.tt/3hirG0C Facebook Inc. won a court ruling dismissing two monopoly lawsuits filed by the U.S. government and a coalition of states that sought to break up the company, dealing a blow to the effort of antitrust officials to take on the biggest tech platforms. The decision by U.S. District Judge James Boasberg in Washington on Monday sent Facebook shares soaring, pushing the company’s market value to more than $1 trillion. Boasberg granted the company’s request to dismiss the complaints filed last year by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission and state attorneys general led by New York, saying in his opinion that the FTC failed to meet the burden for establishing that Facebook has a monopoly in social networking. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] The judge said the FTC failed to clearly define the market and said its assertion about Facebook’s share of the market was “too speculative and conclusory to go forward.” He said the agency could refile the complaint within ...

New top story from Time: As Myanmar’s Junta Intensifies Its Crackdown, Pro-Democracy Protesters Prepare for Civil War

https://ift.tt/3cUWeEQ Before the Feb. 1 coup, Zarni Win* worked for a United Nations-funded committee that monitored a ceasefire between Myanmar’s junta and ethnic armed groups. Today, the 27-year-old from Yangon, the country’s largest city, is getting ready to enlist in one of those groups herself. “Now is the time to start preparing to eliminate the terrorist military,” she tells TIME. “I am ready to join the armed revolution.” Myanmar is veering dangerously toward all-out civil war as the military, known as the Tatmadaw, terrorizes the public , and attacks restive ethnic territories. The U.N. special envoy for Myanmar, Christine Schraner Burgener, warned on Mar. 31 that “a bloodbath is imminent.” In an online presentation cited by the Associated Press, she said civil war “at an unprecedented scale” was a possibility and spoke of Myanmar’s deterioration into a “failed state.” Protesters in Myanmar have maintained a largely peaceful resistance to dictatorship since ...

My precise view

Search This Blog